Let’s look at three things to watch out for from today’s national income data, starting with the impact of GST restocking.
India witnessed one of the biggest one-off sale season ahead of the rollout of GST from July 1. A mid-year switchover to GST had prompted anxious shops and companies to de-stock and clear up the inventory pile ahead of the new system’s kick off.
The scale down in production could have a bearing on the overall GDP growth numbers in April-June.
The government has been claiming the slowdown was a one-off affair, given the large scale inventory clearance before GST’s rollout. This may well be the case, with many companies building inventories from August, factoring in price and cost changes brought about by GST.
Consumption demand in both urban (vehicle sales, consumer credit) and rural (two-wheeler, tractor sales) areas has improved, as have indicators of private investment demand (railway traffic, capital goods production). Export volumes have also risen 8.4 percent in July-September (from 4.6 percent in April-June).